Researchers name almost 3,000 killed in early days of Gaza war

BEIRUT/DUBAI: Israel's security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant to avenge Saturday's rocket attack on a soccer field in the Druze Arab town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children.

According to the Israeli military, Majdal Shams was shot down by an Iranian-made Falaq-1 missile with a 50-kilogram warhead fired by the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah militia, a finding supported by the United States.

Hezbollah, which has engaged in regular cross-border fire with Israel since the Gaza war began on October 7, said it was “not involved” in the incident but confirmed it had fired one such rocket on Saturday at an Israeli military target in the Golan.

The statement said that “the Islamic Resistance has absolutely nothing to do with the incident and we categorically deny all false allegations in this regard,” blaming the deaths on a failed Israeli interceptor missile.

The Majdal Shams incident followed an Israeli strike that killed four Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, prompting the militia to retaliate with rocket attacks on the Golan and northern Israel.

In a thread posted on social media platform X, Mahanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said one possible scenario is that Hezbollah or one of its allies, such as the forces of al- Fajr and Al-Qassam Brigades fired missiles by mistake.

Regardless of what happened, “in all cases the carnage gave the Netanyahu government (an excuse) to respond with force,” he said.

Netanyahu, who returned early from his visit to the US, immediately attended a security cabinet meeting, telling local media that “Hezbollah will pay a heavy price” for the attack, “a price it has not paid before.”

After the meeting, his office said: “Members of the Cabinet of Ministers authorized the Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense to decide on the method and timing of the response to the terrorist organization Hezbollah.”

During a visit to Majdal on Sunday, Shams Gallant vowed to “hit the enemy hard”, sparking fears that the war in Gaza could widen. Meanwhile, Iran has warned Israel that any new military “adventures” in Lebanon could lead to “unforeseen consequences.”

The Israeli army called it “the deadliest attack on Israeli civilians” since a firefight on the Lebanese border in October. The attack heightened fears that the fighting, which has so far been relatively low-key, could escalate into full-scale war.

Indeed, observers of the region fear that any serious retaliation for the attack by Israel could even draw Iranian supporters of Hezbollah into the fray.

“A strong response by Israel against Hezbollah could provoke another direct retaliation from Iran,” Meir Javedanfar, an Israeli Middle East commentator and Iranian academic, said after the missile attack.

As with previous escalating incidents between Israel and its Iranian-backed adversaries since the start of the Gaza war, retaliation has been relatively low-key and carefully orchestrated to maintain a deterrent effect without sparking a major confrontation.

Still, Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington Middle East Institute, has no illusions about the gravity of the situation. “The risk of further miscalculation was not higher,” he said.

“A full-scale Israeli-Lebanese war has been expected for a long time. The “positive” scenario envisages an attack on the almost depopulated areas of both countries.”

Although the missile attack and subsequent Israeli retaliation could create the conditions for a rapid escalation, Hajhe Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center believes Hezbollah is still seeking to avoid all-out war.

“Hezbollah wants to avoid war and show restraint after Israel's response,” he said. “Even if Hizbullah crosses the red line, Hizbullah will likely choose a symbolic 'check the box' response.”

However, “the attack on Majdal Shams highlights the challenge of maintaining a geographically limited conflict for many months. Mistakes or miscalculations are bound to happen and can turn into conflict, regardless of the desire of various parties to avoid conflict.'

Israel followed through on its threat to retaliate early Sunday morning, striking the southern Lebanese towns of Abbasiya and Burj al-Shamali. Significant material damage was caused to both towns adjacent to the city of Tire. Further attacks took place on Tire Harfa and Khiyam.

Strikes also took place in Tarai in central Bekaa, two rockets destroyed a residential building. No casualties have been reported.

“Nobody wants a big war,” Kim Ghattas, a Beirut-based Lebanese journalist who writes for The Atlantic, wrote on X.

“Israel will aim to hit key or highly visible targets either in one heavy night of strikes or in a week of operations. The key is to avoid populated areas/civilian casualties and not trigger a major response from Hezbollah and a wider war.

“It's very difficult to calibrate. The stakes are high for Lebanon, the region and the Biden administration. Israel has so far not called for the evacuation of further settlements in northern Israel, indicating it believes Hezbollah's response will be measured.

“All of this requires open channels of communication to ensure that no one is misreading the actions of the other side. It's like a choreography of death with all-too-real consequences for civilians everywhere.”

As tensions rose over the weekend, several Western countries issued statements urging their citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, several airlines have suspended flights to and from Beirut.

After the attack, there was a flurry of diplomatic activity to contain Israel's response.

The Government of Lebanon has condemned all acts of violence and attacks on civilians. “Strikes against civilians are a flagrant violation of international law and contradict the principles of humanity,” the statement said, calling for an “immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts.”

Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said the US, France and others were trying to contain the escalation in an interview with local Al-Jadeed TV late Sunday.

“Hezbollah has been striking military targets, not civilian targets, since the beginning of the war,” he said, adding that he “doesn't believe it struck Majdal Shams.”

“It may have been done by other organizations, a mistake by Israel or even a mistake by Hezbollah. I don't know. We need an international investigation to find out the truth in this matter.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also said “negotiations are ongoing with international, European and Arab parties to protect Lebanon and divert it from danger,” in a statement on Sunday.

Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the US National Security Council, said Washington was “in ongoing discussions” with Israel and Lebanon after the attack.

António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, condemned the missile strike and called on all parties to “exercise maximum restraint”.

In a joint statement, Jeanine Hennis-Plashart, the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, and Major General Arolda Lazaro, head of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stressed that “civilians must be protected at all times.”

They called on the parties to “exercise maximum restraint and end the intense and sustained exchange of fire that could ignite a wider conflict that would plunge the entire region into an unimaginable catastrophe.”

Hennis-Plashart said she had been in contact with Nabih Berry, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who is considered an important channel of communication with Hezbollah.

In his own statement, Berry said that “Lebanon and its resistance (Hezbollah) are committed to Resolution 1701 and the rules of engagement not to target civilians,” stressing that “the resistance's denial of what happened in Majdal Shams strongly confirms this obligation and his and Lebanon's lack of responsibility for what happened.”

Walid Jumblatt, the influential former leader of the Druze-based Progressive Socialist Party, said he received a call from US President Joe Biden's special envoy Amos Hochstein on Saturday night to discuss the incident.

Jumblatt urged both sides to exercise restraint and remain calm, reiterating the need to avoid civilian casualties. “Wherever it occurs, an attack on civilians, whether in occupied Palestine, the occupied Golan or southern Lebanon, is unacceptable,” he said in a statement.

The fact that those killed in the Majdal Shams attack were not Israelis but members of the Druze community is a complicating factor for Hezbollah, which is seeking to improve ties with the religious sect.

Many residents of Majdal Shams have not taken Israeli citizenship since Israel captured the Golan Heights in Syria in 1967.

After conquering roughly two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel annexed the territory in 1981, which is not recognized by the international community except for the United States as of 2019.

The Golan Druze mostly identify as Syrian, having resident status rather than citizenship in Israel. Members of the Druze community in Syria have resisted the Hezbollah-backed Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad.

The “casus belli” of war is particularly important to Hezbollah, said Michael A. Horowitz, a geopolitical analyst and head of the analyst group Le Beck International.

“They will have to justify their actions to the Lebanese (who will suffer massive destruction from Israel) if the Majdal Shams attack starts a war, and it will be particularly inconvenient for them.

“Hezbollah wants to be seen as the defender of Lebanon. If a war breaks out over an attack that kills the townspeople (who don't even identify as Israelis), it will be especially bad for the group.

“This explains Hezbollah's denial, apart from sectarian dynamics.” The very narrative of how the war begins is crucial to the group.'