Lorcana single prices are crashing. If you head over to TCGPlayer, you’ll find that every single card from The First Chapter is cheaper than it was yesterday, some significantly so. Elsa, Spirit of Winter is down to just $24, a 50 percent decrease from its peak in early September. Legendary cards that were as much as $40 last month like Hades, Infernal Schemer; Belle, Strange but Special; Stitch, Carefree Surfer; and Maleficent, Monstrous Dragon are all down to around $20. Even Rapunzel, Gifted with Healing, the most consistently expensive card in the set, has lost a third of its value over the last week. Lorcana cards are starting to get to a more reasonable price, and that’s a beautiful thing.
It’s not surprising that prices are finally coming down. The local game store restock – which was originally planned for September, then delayed until October, before finally showing up this past week in early November – added tons of product to the market that is helping meet the demand that has been building over the past three months. Timing is a big factor too, as we’re just days away from the release of the first expansion, Rise of the Floodborn. People are likely less willing to make big investments in old cards as they prepare to spend big on RotF packs and Treasure Troves. The good news is that most of the original cards are still going to be useful in the new meta, and it’s finally starting to get reasonable to buy them.
I’m taking the crash as a bit of a personal victory, since I advocated that people should be patient and wait for prices to come down when a new wave of product finally showed up. It’s unfortunate that it took so much longer than we thought it would, because being patient would have meant missing the entire first season of organized play while you waited for prices to come down. I ended up buying a few odd singles to finish some decks, but I never invested in those $60 Rapunzels. That meant I couldn’t play the Steelsong deck that dominated the meta, which Rapunzel, Gifted with Healing is fundamental to. With singles coming down, it means a lot of people that were priced out of the best decks will have a chance to catch up on some of the best TFC cards.
The most satisfying thing about the crash is that there’s some predictability to the market. A new wave of product came and prices dropped, just as they should. If the reprint of TFC comes in December as Ravensburger has said it will, then we should expect these prices to come down even further.
It’s worth celebrating, but also worth acknowledging that there’s still a long way to go. If you wanted to build the Ruby/Amethyst control deck in September just from singles it would have cost you over $700, which is absurd. Today, that same deck would cost you a little over $300, which is still absurd. Competitive decks shouldn’t require that kind of investment, especially when the meta is going to shift dramatically every three months and require more investing. The most competitive Pokemon decks typically cost somewhere between $60 and $100, and it would be great to see Lorcana’s prices get down to there too.
By all accounts, Rise of the Floodborn allocation is just as strict as The First Chapter’s was, if not more. We’re already seeing early cards being sold for astronomical prices online, and there’s a good chance the best Legendary cards in the set will once again hit the $40 or even $60 price point this month. Ravensburger has said that TFC and RofF are getting reprints in December, so I’m hopeful that a flood of new product will help keep prices reasonable, and bring them even further down then where they are today. It sucks to wait while everyone else is jamming on the best decks, but this is proof that the market can move in both directions.