New polls in America's seven key swing states show that Donald Trump's lead has been almost completely “destroyed,” turning the presidential race from a potential landslide to a toss-up.
Before he dropped out of the race, President Joe Biden was losing to Mr. Trump in every swing state and trailing the national polling average all year.
Mr. Biden announced his retirement a week and a half ago and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to become the new Democratic nominee. The party quickly rallied around her and her poll ratings improved – although Mr Trump remains the favourite.
Three new national surveys were released today. Two of them give Ms. Harris a slight edge, and the other a slightly larger edge for the former president. Reuters/Ipsos has Ms. Harris leading 43-42 among registered voters; Harvard/Harris has Mr. Trump 52-48.
Ultimately, the American presidential election comes down to a small number of states that do not lean heavily toward either party. Each state has a certain number of electoral votes, calculated according to the size of the population; The candidate who gets 270 votes wins.
Which brings us to the most significant of these three polls. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult study is based on a large sample of 11,538 voters in seven key states.
Nationally, Ms. Harris leads Trump with 47 percent of the vote to his 46. But the state numbers matter more.
They show Ms. Harris leading in Michigan (53-42), Wisconsin (49-47), Arizona (49-47) and Nevada (47-45). She is tied with Mr. Trump in Georgia (47-47). Moreover, the candidate from the Republican Party leads in North Carolina (48-46) and Pennsylvania (50-46).
The Democratic vote share increased in all seven of these states.
“Kamala Harris is destroying Trump's lead in the state,” Bloomberg reporter John Levy said, noting that data showed Ms. Harris “is riding a wave of enthusiasm among young, black and Hispanic voters.”
“Harris destroyed Trump's leadership,” echoed fellow Bloomberg reporter Josh Wingrove.
“The poll found a big Democratic lead in Michigan, a more modest lead for Trump in Pennsylvania and close contests everywhere else. Dead heat.”
Project the results of these polls onto the electoral map and you have a razor, a razor a narrow margin: Ms. Harris had 268 electoral votes to Mr. Trump's 254. Georgia, as the only state, would have decided the winner.
Coincidentally, Ms. Harris traveled to the state capital, Atlanta, today for a rally. Mr Trump will hold his own event at the same venue on Saturday.
“Momentum is shifting in this race. And there are signs that Donald Trump feels it,” she told a crowd of her supporters.
“We are the underdogs in this race. We. But we are a company of people's power.”
Ms. Harris recalled Mr. Trump's decision to withdraw from the presidential debate, which was scheduled for mid-September, as it stands. He agreed to the debate when Mr. Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
Mr. Trump's campaign now says there is no point in agreeing to a debate until Democrats have settled on a nominee. The vice president has secured the pledges of enough delegates to become her party's nominee, but the Democratic convention won't take place until mid-August.
“Last week, as you could see, he pulled out of the debate in September that he had previously agreed to,” Ms Harris said.
“He will not discuss. But he and his partner seem to have something to say about me. And by the way, don't you find some of their stuff just plain weird?
“Well, Donald. I hope you will change your mind about meeting me on the debate stage. Because, as the saying goes, if you have something to say, say it to my face.”
As we've written before, the line that Mr. Trump and his Vice President-elect, J.D. Vance, were “weird” has been a central message of the Harris campaign since she took on the candidacy.
Speaking to Fox News anchor Laura Ingraham, Mr. Trump tried to hit back at Democrats.
“I hit a nice 7-iron right off the pin. Biden would not do that. He couldn't hit the ball 15 yards,” Mr Trump said, before moving on to the “strange” issue.
“Just amazing.” You know who's awesome? She is simply amazing. She is an amazing person,” said the former president.
“Look at her past. Look what she does. And look at what she said about herself. And I will not get into it. But what she was saying and who she was compared to what she was saying circa 2016.”
Ms. Harris, a former San Francisco district attorney and California attorney general, launched her campaign to become a U.S. senator that year. She served one term in the Senate before running for president, losing to Mr. Biden and then agreeing to be his vice-presidential running mate.
