Last year I thought the best race to watch at the Oscars was Best Supporting Actor, and it was around this time last year that the speculation began. Before the ceremony in February, the race was a procession of Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer. Deserved, no doubt. But, nevertheless, he faced stiff competition. This year, I hope, we will see a similar phenomenon. Many believe that the best female role is something that is too close to call this time. It shouldn't be.
As always, this year saw many great performances from the leading actresses. But one of them carried the film so completely that her recasting would have completely changed the film, and while the other leads shined, I don't believe they can claim that. Best actress of the year went to Mikey Madison for Honor, and with any luck awards season will land her a prize.
The most exciting race of 2023 has slowed down towards the end
A lot can change between the start of awards voting and the handing out of medals. This time last year I had Ryan Gosling (Barbie) as my favorite RDJ. Although he stood out, no one gave him much hope of pulling it off before February. I also put forward Charles Melton and Dominic Cessa from May/December and The Holdovers as potential nominees who missed out on the real deal and were replaced by Mark Ruffalo (Poor) and Sterling K. Brown (American fiction).
Sessa may have been a bit ambitious, but May/December ended up being one of the most talked-about snubs of the season, especially after Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore were also snubbed as it received just one nomination for Best Original Screenplay. I had Robert De Niro in my top five, predicting (correctly) that his legendary name in a fantasy turn would carry it, and also predicting (also correctly) that it was too subtle to challenge RDJ.
Why Mikey Madison Should Win Best Actress
No Honora without Mikey Madison. Not only because she plays the main character, she there is the title character. She is a movie. I can't imagine anyone else doing even half the work she did. Sean Baker's films have always needed something more to send them over the edge, a final push in the pursuit of glory. Madison delivers this push by kicking around in her nice heels.
As a sex worker who loves (or loves to use) an Eastern European rich kid, Madison carries the film on her back. The tenderness between the couple, always clouded by deception, only works because of the affection it radiates. Likewise, in the second half, when everything falls apart, the entire film revolves around her. The cast is different, the tone is different, the scenes are longer and more aggressive, everything is tense. In all of this, she balances the ferocity the film needs to survive with the sweetness it needs to take off.
As handsome as he is, as evil as he is, this is not just a good role in a good movie. This is the kind of game that highlights the power of a great actress. Maybe even the best female role.
Favorites for the best actress
The current front-runner for Best Actress is Cynthia Erivo for her portrayal of Elphaba in Wicked. It's a great role, wonderfully played. It's a different, more personal interpretation of the role than Ariana Grande opposite, playing a different kind of outcast than Idina Menzel, while Grande tries to recreate Kristen Chenoweth. But what confuses her is that it's only half of the movie, and while Grande's airy comedy translates to that split, Eriva is only in the middle of her character. Defying Gravity is an amazing game, but I suspect this win will be more deserved next year.
Also in the lead is Angelia Jolie for Maria, a Netflix limited-edition film. It stars opera singer Maria Callas in her later years, playing notes similar to Life in Pink, for which Marion Cotillard won an Academy Award. However, Jolie's role is less comedic, less tragic and more focused on subtlety – it feels like a 2024 performance as opposed to a 2007 Cotillard performance. It's a very award-winning performance, but perhaps cynically, it feels like it's trying to be something that Anora Madison isn't.
Outsiders for Best Actress
It would be a big surprise if the above three names were not highlighted. The winner is likely to be from that top three, with the rest fighting for the other two spots. They say it's an honor to be nominated after all. Here are three with the most compelling stories that could make the race more interesting, if not closer.
Sarisse Ronan has four nominations and no wins. At just 30 years of age, and potentially turning five (or even six) this year, she could break the record of eight defeats and no wins held by Peter O'Toole and Glenn Close. Her move in The Outrun is all the words you'd normally apply to Ronan's performance. Powerful, smart, raw. But especially with the lack of a script, it's not up to the level of Madison, Erive or Jolie. She's also not at the level she reached in Brooklyn, Lady Bird, or Little Women, all of whom felt more deserving of the win.
Ronan is also likely to be up for Best Supporting Actress for her work in World War II drama Blitz.
I wish Demi Moore was considered as well, but we know how the Academy feels about horror. In my opinion, this is a performance second only to Madison's in commitment to the role, and the most exciting scene is the rage-filled lipstick scrubbing in the mirror. It's not a role that the Academy celebrates, like it or not. I don't choose.
Finally, Carla Sophia of Gascony. If nominated for her lead role in Emilia Perez, she would be the first openly trans person nominated for an Oscar, and only the fourth in any category (Elliott Page was nominated before his transition and thus appears here omitted). On the one hand, it's great. As a trans person, it's hard for me not to see a trans woman as a Best Actress winner.
On the other hand, Emilia Perez is a bad movie. Not just poorly lit, scripted disjointed, or filled with trite musical numbers (all true), but bad at a central level. It tells the story of a mob boss who transitions to avoid criminal responsibility and does it badly. This pretty much establishes that Emilia is in fact transgender and doesn't just go to extremes, but generally fails at everything she tries to do.
It's going to be nominated for a lot of awards, and a lot of well-meaning people will point to it as a symbol of progress, and then feel really stupid five years from now when they realize how outdated, wrong, and often vile Emilia Perez really is . Anyone remember Crash?
