NEW YORK/CHICAGO: President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign and withdraw from the US presidential race has created enough momentum for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic presidential nominee, according to three Arab American analysts.
Biden, who endorsed Harris in his exit announcement on Sunday, has trailed former President Donald Trump in opinion polls amid growing Arab-American #AbandonBiden movement and broader calls for him to drop out of the 2024 race after his disastrous performance at debate on June 27 in Atlanta.
What was supposed to be the coronation of the 81-year-old Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on August 19 has now become an open contest in which nearly 4,700 party delegates will vote state by state for their candidate of choice to challenge Trump, the nominee of Republican Party.
Rana Abtar, a Washington talk show host for Asharq News, expects Harris to be the Democratic nominee, although several other candidates may also be considered. However, she believes that Democrats “must show unity” to win the election in November.
“Today we noticed that the Democrats are starting to support Harris one by one,” she told Arab News. “In several states, there were some delegates who had already voted to support Kamala Harris. This means that their votes will be reflected in the Democratic National Convention.
“Remaining Democrats who have not yet endorsed Harris are expected to fall in line soon. At some point, we will see all or most Democrats line up behind Harris. It is critical for Democrats to show unity after the dilemma their party has faced since President Biden announced that he will not seek a second term.”
Biden's exit from the race frees up convention delegates from the nation's 50 states and provinces to endorse any candidate during the convention. Many alternative names have been floated, including centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, former first lady Michelle Obama, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
Noting that Harris is popular among African-American voters, a traditional pillar of support for the Democratic Party, Abtar said many still see her as part of the Biden administration's policies that fueled the #AbandonBiden movement, in which Arabs and Muslims voted in key option. state primaries for “no commitment” or “no vote” options, not for president.
“Harris is not that popular in the polls,” Abtar said. “Many Democrats worry that her chances against Trump are the same as President Biden's against Trump. Certainly, in the coming days, we will see Harris go out and talk to voters, because in the past, as vice president, she has not directly addressed the American people on many occasions.
“Biden handed her the issue of immigration, which in itself put her in a very awkward position, especially since the main Republican attack on Democrats is on immigration and border security.
“But I think the most important element here is not Harris. That will be who she chooses as her running mate, because voters need excitement. Democratic voters need excitement to get out and vote.”
Abtar said third-party candidates, such as independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Dr. Jill Stein, are often seen as “election spoilers” — people who could take votes away from Harris or even Trump.
“Kennedy's numbers are considered pretty high for an independent candidate, and his voters could impact the election season by taking votes away from … Trump or Harris … if she gets the official nomination,” Abtar said.
Anyone currently being proposed to replace Biden could become a vice-presidential candidate, including Pritzker, a billionaire with his own presidential ambitions.
Amal Mudalali, a former ambassador to the United Nations and CEO of Bridges International Group, believes Harris has a “perception problem.”
She told Arab News: “The perception is that she was not a strong vice president, that she will not be a strong candidate and that she will not be able to beat Trump.”
While Democrats appeared to be moving quickly to rally around Harris, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Monday, Mudalali remains cautious.
“It's all up in the air because there are still very strong Democrats who are calling for an open convention and for everybody to throw their hats in the ring and see if they can get the strongest Democratic candidate. will be able to defeat Trump,” she said.
The influence of independent candidates in the elections should not be underestimated, she added.
“In a very close election, independent candidates can do a lot of damage. Because this election is a very tight race – you're talking about a couple of thousand or a thousand votes – that can make or break an election campaign,” Mudalali said.
“Let's say if Kennedy was able to get a lot of Democratic votes, that could hurt the Democrats more, and that would be a big problem for them.
“But we still don't know who will be the candidate from the Democratic Party. If the person is a very strong candidate, the party could put together an anti-Trump constituency that would overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic nominee. In this case, the independents will not do anything.”
Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes that Harris is “almost certain” to replace Biden as the nominee, and suggested that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could be her running mate on the first “women's ticket.”
He told Arab News: “Speculation is largely focused on who will be her running mate, including possibly only women if she chooses Whitmer. This is unprecedented and carries risks. But Whitmer could help swing a key Michigan state, and a women's team could re-energize a largely demoralized Democratic base.”
He added: “Harris' approval ratings with the American public have never been higher. But for now, the decision by the Democratic Party and President Biden to nominate her is largely based on funding and finances. She is the only one who will be able to claim all the money, the hundreds of millions of dollars that have been collected so far. Therefore, her choice as a running mate will also be key to attracting this Democratic base and to the overall likeability of this Democratic ticket.”
Maksad believes that Biden's exit from the presidential race and speculation that Whitmer is joining the candidacy could affect Michigan's strong Arab and Muslim votes, many of whom voted against the Biden-Harris team in the Feb. 27 Democratic primary. .
“Arab Americans are not monolithic,” he said. “They are a diverse group with different priorities spread across four battleground states. Michigan is getting a lot of attention, along with Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
“In Michigan, where there are 100,000 of them, they feel strongly about the war in Gaza and the fact that President Biden is not doing enough to stop the war. Biden's departure opens up the potential for the Democratic Party to once again make inroads among Arab Americans in Michigan. And if the vice president (elect) is actually the governor of Michigan, that will give Democrats even more opportunity to break through and win back Michigan as a key battleground state.”
