ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have met periodically in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But these meetings did not lead to a thaw in their icy relations.
But now it's a different matter, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his desire to restore official relations with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad.
Earlier this month, he said he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any time”, to which the Syrian leader replied that any meeting would depend on the “content”.
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic relations in 2011 after the outbreak of civil war in Syria. Relations have remained hostile ever since, particularly as Turkey continues to support armed groups opposed to the Assad regime.
Since the start of the civil war in 2011, Turkey has supported Syrian armed groups in their fight against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad (left). AFP
So what is the motivation for changing course now? And what are the possible consequences of Turkish-Syrian normalization of relations?
Syrian writer and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes that President Erdogan is seeking normalization for two reasons. “The first is preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of a return to the policy of (US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Thus, Erdogan will have to cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
The second reason, according to Darvish, is Erdogan's desire to get closer to the Syrian regime's ally Russia after Turkey's drift towards the US after the start of the war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member, the conflict has complicated Turkey's usually balanced approach to relations with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara's cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukrainian issue,” said Darvish. “As a result of significant Western involvement in the matter, their cooperation in Syria represents a rallying point through which Erdogan wants to emphasize his friendship with Putin and Moscow's interests in the Middle East.”
Those in northwest Syria, which is controlled by the opposition and backed by Turkey, see the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus as a betrayal.
During one of several protests in Idlib since early July, demonstrators held placards in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is on you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, rural Aleppo and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution, demanding freedom, dignity and the building of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad. They still stick to this principle and these slogans and cannot give them up.”
Those living in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led, US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the implications of normalization.
“There are fears among the population that reconciliation could be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” Omar said.
As a result of its incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019, Turkey took control of several cities, many of which were previously controlled by AANES.
Turkey's justification for its incursions in 2018 and 2019 and its continued presence in Syria was its aim to create a “security zone” between itself and the armed forces of AANES, the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Turkiye views the SDF as the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal Erdogan wants to make with Assad,” Darwish said. “This issue unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkey as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience of self-rule.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds will accept reconciliation on three conditions. First, they want Turkey to withdraw its troops from Afrin and Ras Al Ain. Second, the cessation of Turkish attacks on AANES areas. And thirdly, guarantees from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural and administrative rights.”
But how likely is the rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not really, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thor Redcrow. “I consider the prospects of a detente between Erdogan and Assad very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkey's ideas about the “normalization” of relations with Syria constitute a policy of unilateral influence in favor of Ankara. In this arrangement, Turkey continues to occupy Hatay (Liva Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and makes military invasion demands regarding its sovereignty, as in the case of the Adan Agreement in 1998, but gives nothing in return.”
In public statements, Assad made it clear that the meeting between him and Erdogan will take place only if Turkey withdraws from Syria. Redcrow believes that Turkey has no intention of leaving.
“I don't see Damascus being interested in photo manipulation,” he said. “The Syrian government is far more proud than some other regional actors who are happy to be one of the 'non-Ottoman vilayets' of Turkey.”
Perhaps Erdogan is trying to capitalize on the trend toward normalization of relations between Arab countries that began in earnest with Syria's re-entry into the Arab League last year. European states and the US, however, remain divided.
“While Germany, France, Italy and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkey can control the gateway to Europe and act as a 'continental bouncer' for refugees from the Middle East and West Asia, the US is more focused on denial Russia and Iran once again have full access to all of Syria for strategic reasons, such as access to the Mediterranean Sea and a 'Shia land bridge' from Tehran to Beirut,” Redcrow said.
“The current status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation, as it will also endanger the northeastern parts of Syria, where the US military is embedded with its most reliable anti-Daesh military partners in the SDF. Therefore, Turkey will not be given any green light to jeopardize American interests.”
The US House of Representatives in February passed the Anti-Assad Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on social media platform X on July 12, the bill's author, Representative Joe Wilson, expressed his disappointment with Erdogan's calls for normalization, likening it to “normalization with death.”
Although there is little chance for reconciliation to succeed at the moment, the estimated 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey view even rumors of a normalization of the situation with dread and fear.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five who lives in southeastern Turkey, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) spread, many people do not even leave their homes. Even if they are beaten by their superiors at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“A forced return would have a profound effect on us,” Hyatt said. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a person is deported back to Syria and his wife and children remain in Turkey, how will they cope? It's complicated. Our children can study here. They have stability and security.”
Fears of deportation are heightened by waves of violence against Syrian refugees that have swept into southern Turkey in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of Kayseri province in central Turkey attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey is partly driven by economic problems in which Turks see underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their employment prospects.
“The Turks are very happy for us to come home,” Hayat said. “It's not fast for them. We all live in conditions of increased stress. We just pray that (Assad and Erdogan) do not reconcile.”
